The exercise has become ritual. A monthly rendez-vous, as predictable in its calendar as the countdown ticking off the days before the opening ceremony, but much more random in its content. At D – 100 of the Paris 2024 Games, the American institute Gracenote published on Wednesday April 17 the latest version of its virtual medal table.
Without the slightest surprise, the United States continues to lead the pack. Gracenote predicts them a new place at the top of the nations rankings, for the eighth time at the Summer Games. The Americans could leave Paris with 123 medals, ten more than at the Tokyo 2020 Games, a collective performance that would be Team USA's best since the Los Angeles Games in 1984. According to forecasts, the United States could medal in 27 sports on the program, two fewer than their record-breaking Tokyo 2020 Games.
One rank behind, the eternal second in the Olympic hierarchy: China. With 89 medals, the same total as at the Tokyo Olympics, the Chinese would remain a good distance from the United States. But they would come very close to the number of gold medals, from which the IOC establishes its ranking of countries. China would win 35, compared to 39 for the United States. Its strengths: diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton. Classic.
For the rest of the classification, two versions oppose each other. For Gracenote, third place would go to Great Britain, another regular on the podium. The British could win 66 medals, all metals combined, two more than at the Tokyo 2020 Games. Strong. But their win numbers would plummet, with a prediction of “only” 13 gold medals.
But the IOC is categorical: the ranking of medals does not take into account the total, but the number of first places. The bonus for victory, in short. To excellence. In this game, a good surprise for the host country, France is in third place. According to current forecasts, it would total 28 gold medals, almost triple that at the Tokyo 2020 Games. Gracenote predicts that the Blues will have podiums in 25 sports on the program, their record at the Summer Games. Paris 2024 would go down in history as its most brilliant vintage since the Paris Olympic Games in 1900.
The Nielsen group's analysis institute predicts a new victory for the two French handball teams, men's and women's, a second consecutive title for fencer Romain Cannone, a resounding success for judokas Teddy Riner and Clarisse Agbégnénou, but also for Amandine Buchard, victorious in 52 kg over the Japanese Uta Abe, reigning world and Olympic champion. Finally, Léon Marchand would meet expectations by winning two gold medals in swimming, plus one silver.
100 days before the opening, the top 5 would be completed by Australia, whose position continues to climb as the Games approach. Gracenote promises a total of 50 medals, their best collective result since the Athens Games in 2004. Team Australia would exceed the 40 medal mark for the sixth time in the last eight editions of the Summer Games. Unsurprisingly, it owes this envious position to the success of the swimmers and especially female swimmers.
The rest of the top 10 would be shared between Asia (Japan and South Korea), and Europe (Italy, Netherlands and Germany). The first African country, Ethiopia, appears 16th in Gracenote's virtual ranking, with 13 medals, including three gold. Kenya ranks 30th in terms of number of podiums, with 9 medals, including three titles. Clarification: the American institute has chosen not to include in its analysis possible neutral athletes carrying a Russian or Belarusian passport, due to lack of recent performances in international benchmark competitions.
At the end of the bench, at the very end of the ranking, Gracenote predicts a very modest Olympic edition for a group of eight countries with very diverse sporting profiles. The science of statistics promises only a bronze medal, the minimum service, for Tajikistan, San Marino, Trinidad and Tobago, North Korea, Fiji, Panama, Vietnam and… Finland.
