Less than 5 months before the opening of the Paris 2024 Games (July 26 to August 12), the analysis is further refined. Thursday February 29, Gracenote Nielsen published a new virtual medal table for the Olympic event. The latest, but not yet the ultimate ranking, the American institute planning monthly updates.
What should we remember? A status quo in mind. Gracenote still gives first place in the ranking by number of medals to the United States, ahead of China and Great Britain. But, for the first time, France would climb onto the podium by ranking the countries by the number of gold medals.
With a projection of 121 medals, compared to 113 at the Tokyo 2020 Games, Team USA promises to be the most successful in the field. And one of the best in history. The American team could win medals in 26 sports, three short of its record from the Tokyo 2020 Games. Track and field and swimming remain its two front runners, with almost half of the American medals potentially won in these two sports.
If Gracenote's forecast, with less than 150 days to go before the Games, proves correct, the United States will top the Summer Games medal table for the eighth consecutive time.
One place behind, China. A habit. Gracenote predicts 85 medals for him, four fewer than at the Tokyo Games, but with an excellent success rate for victory. With an announced total of 37 gold medals, the Chinese would come to bite the calves of the Americans (also 37 gold medals). The main Chinese strengths: diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis and artistic gymnastics.
The podium would be completed by Great Britain. Team GB could compile 65 medals, one more than at the Tokyo 2020 Games, but only 16 gold. Such a result would allow the British to reach or exceed the 60 medal mark for the fourth time in a row at the Summer Games. They owe it to a good balance of their strengths, with places on the podium in 20 sports.
Japan could, according to Gracenote, build on its success at the Tokyo Games with a virtual tally of 53 medals, only five fewer than at home in 2021. But, a predictable phenomenon, victory would be less accessible to it, with 15 medals. gold compared to 27 at the Tokyo Games.
France, the host country, can already prepare to multiply the “ celebrations », to use an expression dear to the COJO Paris 2024. Gracenote promises it 52 medals, one less than Japan. But the home advantage would allow it a spectacular leap forward in the ranking of nations, with 27 gold medals, a performance synonymous with third place according to IOC rules, behind the United States and China.
In Paris 2024, the French Olympic team would win medals in 23 different sports, a record. It would experience its best Games since 1900. The number of Olympic titles (27) predicted for the Blues by Gracenote would be very close to the total medals won at the Toko 2020 Games, all metals combined (33).
Almost superfluous clarification: the statistical predictions established by Gracenote less than 150 days before the opening ceremony do not include Russian and Belarusian athletes. “ It is not possible to accurately assess the potential performances of those who will participate in Paris 2024 as individual neutral athletes, unless they have participated in more or less normal competitions such as, for example, tennis players from these two countries », points out the American institute.
