The exercise has become ritual, but it still remains eagerly awaited. Six months before the opening of the Paris 2024 Games, the Gracenote Sports institute, owned by the Nielsen group, has published a new edition of its forecast study of medals at the next Olympic meeting. He anticipates an American raid, a strong Chinese presence, and a top 10 without much surprise.
A clarification, as a preamble: Gracenote Sports does not read the future in the stars, but its forecasts are often correct. And sometimes even very fair. For the Tokyo 2020 Games, his analysis correctly predicted the top 10 countries in the medal rankings, but not in the exact order. For Beijing 2022, he had found the top 5 in advance (not in order), and eight of the top ten countries.
For Paris 2024, its figures are clear: the United States will dominate the world. Widely. Gracenote Sports promises them 129 medals, sixteen more than at the Tokyo 2020 Games. Team USA should find their way to the podium in 27 different sports, two fewer than at Tokyo 2020. The Americans should particularly shine in athletics and swimming, two sports which could bring them more than half of their medals.
One rank below, China. A habit. At the Tokyo Games, the Chinese won 89 medals. For Paris 2024, they should mark time slightly, with a prediction of 85 places on the podium, including 35 titles. Diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis and artistic gymnastics appear to be their main hunting grounds. China could win medals in 21 sports.
In third place, Great Britain. According to Gracenote, the British could offer themselves 64 medals, as in Tokyo 2020, and grab more than 60 places on the podium for the fourth consecutive time at the Summer Olympic Games. Britain owes this to the diversity of its strengths, with podium finishes expected in 20 sports.
Respecting a trend observed many times, according to which a host country maintains its good momentum for at least one additional edition, Japan is in 4th place. Gracenote promises him 58 medals, two fewer than at home. But victory promises to be more complex for the Japanese. They had a total of 27 at the Tokyo Games. Forecasts predict 17.
France ? Emmanuel Macron seems to have been right, during his wishes to the sports movement: she is in the top 5. In fifth place in the total number of medals (53), but in third place in terms of Olympic titles, the criterion used by the IOC to rank countries. Gracenote announces 26, almost triple its results from the Tokyo 2020 Games. At home, French athletes could reach the podium in 22 different sports, a record for the country.
The rest of the world top 10 would be made up, according to analyzes by Gracenote Sports, of Australia (15-48), Italy (13-47), Germany (10-39), the Netherlands (16 -35), and South Korea (7-23).
Question: where will Russia stand? The American institute makes no secret of it: the answer remains impossible to guess. “ It is not possible to accurately assess the potential performances of those who will participate in Paris 2024 as individual neutral athletes, unless they have participated in more or less normal competitions such as, for example, tennis players » of Russia and Belarus, estimates Gracenote.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is in the forecast medal table. In 15th place (in number of medals), between Hungary and Turkey, with 18 medals but only two gold. At the Tokyo 2020 Games, before the conflict broke out, she had won 19 places on the podium, but only one Olympic title.
