Things can change very quickly in the Olympic movement. A year ago, the Japanese city of Sapporo was making good progress at the head of the meager parade of candidates for the 2030 Winter Games. Hit hard by the corruption scandal linked to the Tokyo 2020 Games, the project was paused last December. Results of a recent poll in the capital of Hokkaido Prefecture suggest it may never see the light of day again.

Carried out by telephone at the very beginning of the month for daily use Asahi Shimbun, the opinion survey reveals that 47% of Sapporo residents are today opposed to an Olympic candidacy. Almost one in two respondents, therefore. In the opposite camp, only 38% said they were in favor.

Another lesson to be learned from the survey, carried out with a sample of nearly 800 people: the Olympic question should play an important, even major, role in the next municipal elections in Sapporo. The vote is due to take place on Sunday April 9.

The outgoing mayor, Katsuhiro Akimoto, is seeking a third consecutive term. He is a strong supporter of the Winter Games bid, has never hidden it, suggesting on several occasions, before the Tokyo Games corruption scandal, that it would not be necessary to go through a referendum , the polls being all favorable to the project.

The only problem, but a major one: the Olympic idea has seen its support melt like ice in recent months. And Katsuhiro Akimoto faces competition from two other candidates, Kaoru Takano and Hideo Kibata, to keep the mayoralty, both clearly hostile to a candidacy.

According to the opinion survey published by theAsahi Shimbun, more than half (56%) of those surveyed explain that the candidates' position on the Sapporo 2030 issue will influence their vote. Katsuhiro Akimoto will have to play tight, or even sacrifice his Olympic project to keep his seat.

More worrying: almost eight out of ten residents (79%) believe that a referendum should be organized to approve the candidacy for the Winter Games. In such a scenario, it seems unlikely today that the yes vote would win.

Forgotten, the Sapporo 2030 project? At the Japanese Olympic Committee (JOC), the official discourse continues to claim that the file is not buried, only put on hold. But the months pass. And the machine has still not been restarted.

With a plan B – Salt Lake City – much more tailored for the 2034 edition, the attribution of the 2030 Winter Games is taking a completely unpredictable turn just a few months ago.

Sweden came out of the woods first, at the start of the year, bringing out its project for the Winter Games in 2026, where the Stockholm/Are pair had been beaten by the Italians of Milan-Cortina. The Swedes have been working ever since. The IOC gave them time by announcing to postpone the allocation of the Olympic and Paralympic meetings until the Paris session, in July 2024. They take advantage of it.

Above all, Switzerland has in turn slipped a foot in the door. Its national Olympic committee, Swiss Olympic, announced last week that it had asked the IOC to move its name up a notch on the list of contenders. Until then confined to a “ informal dialogue” with the commission of the future host, it moved to a “ continuous dialogue ». Clearly, she abandoned her short-lived exchanges to start serious discussions.

For a country where a cruel succession of failures in candidacies, and the always terrifying prospect of a “ vote » on the Olympic question, require extreme caution, the nuance is not insignificant. Switzerland is starting to dream of the Games again. Above all, she says that the current desert of the campaign for the 2030 edition opens up an avenue for her and offers her a historic opportunity.

In Lausanne, at the IOC headquarters, many see the future through the same prism.