A year. Twelve months and a small handful of days. Candidate cities for the 2030 Winter Games now have a clearer vision of the road ahead before the final decision. And, above all, the length of the journey.

The IOC announced it last weekend, on the occasion of the third and final day of its 139th session (begun then continued last February on the sidelines of the Beijing 2022 Games): the choice of the host city of Winter Games 2030 should be known during the next session. It is scheduled for spring 2023 in Mumbai, India. It will begin on May 30.

Christophe De Kepper, the Director General of the IOC, explained this on Friday from Lausanne: “ The executive commission received yesterday (Thursday May 19) an activity report from Octavian Morariu, the president of the commission for the future host of the Winter Olympic Games. She took note of the in-depth work carried out by the committee and its most interesting proposals. All this could allow us to elect a host city for the 2030 Games at the 140th IOC Session in Mumbai next year"

For the first time, the IOC is therefore bringing forward the date of spring 2023 and the Mumbai session. The body evokes as a very high probability what was until then rather discussed in the corridors: the winner of the race for the 2030 Winter Games will be announced in a year and a few days.

Announced, therefore, with drum rolls, false suspense and official speeches. But surely already known for several months. Thomas Bach confirmed it at a press conference on Friday, May 20, at the end of the session: the IOC will respect the selection process used for the Summer Games in 2032 and the designation of Brisbane. The executive commission will choose one or more files invited to pursue a “ targeted dialogue“. The Mumbai session will then confirm the choice of the winner.

Thomas Bach explained it: “ The executive board is expected to take the decision on the targeted dialogue at its December meeting“. Barring any major surprises, the winner will then be known. It shouldn't change anymore.

For the Summer Games in 2032, Brisbane was the only city called to continue the adventure. For winter 2030, the IOC has not yet revealed its intentions, but everything suggests that the scenario will be identical.

Time is running out, therefore. With the schedule revealed by the IOC at the end of last week, applicants now have less than seven months to submit their applications.

Christophe Dubi, the executive director of the Olympic Games, recognized this: the IOC recorded “ very solid proposals“. Summer and autumn will be decisive, for both. But with such a deadline, the chances of the four applicants no longer really seem equal.

For Sapporo, the rest of the route looks clear. The Japanese have indicated that they will not organize a referendum on the candidacy. Their system is in place, with several events in Nagano, host city of the Winter Games in 1998. Their budget has already been revised downwards once. Sapporo seems to be leading the race and is shaping up to be the favorite to be chosen next December to continue the “ targeted dialogue"

In Salt Lake City, things are also progressing at a good pace, especially in recent months, but the Americans are still hesitant between 2030 and 2034. The IOC could suggest that they focus instead on the second of the two options, in order to avoid a commercial competition with Los Angeles 2028.

The Olympic body makes no secret of it: the new process for selecting host cities allows it all scenarios, including a double vote as with Paris 2024 and Los Angeles 2028, or a very early designation as for Brisbane 2032. Guarantee starting this year for the Americans, a victory in the race for the 2034 Winter Games would certainly not disturb Thomas Bach. The German confided this last Friday, referring to the next Summer Games to be awarded: “ We already have today a significant number of interested parties around the world for the Games in 2036, and even in some cases for 2040. I can't remember a time when we had such a significant number 14 or 18 years in advance"

For the two other applicants, Vancouver and Pyrenees-Barcelona, ​​the coming months appear like a speed race. Canadians will have to complete their feasibility study without delay, then show strong political support for a project that is still uncertain today. As for the Spaniards, they will have to resolve the political differences between Catalonia and Aragon.