The Japanese are not afraid of words. Unlike the IOC, whose official speech remains shrouded in the same blissful optimism, the organizers of the Tokyo 2020 Games are no longer afraid to talk about the worst. They are talking about postponement. They suggest dates.
Haruyuki Takahashi did it this week. His words caused a stir. The Japanese spoke on the subject during an interview with Wall Street Journal. He explained that it would be very difficult to cancel the Tokyo Games, due to the catastrophic impact on the country's economy, but that it was not excluded to postpone the event for one or two years.
Haruyuki Takahashi is not just anyone. Former senior executive of the Dentsu group, current president of Commons, he sits among the 25 members of the executive board of the Tokyo 2020 Games. He joined the organization in June 2014.
The Japanese explained it: the executive council of the organizing committee did not formally discuss the scenario of a postponement. His last meeting was in December, before the outbreak began, and he did not discuss the impact of the coronavirus on the Tokyo 2020 Games.
But Haruyuki Takahashi is categorical: a cancellation would be impossible. The financial damage would be colossal. A study conducted by SMBC Nikko Securities, revealed by the agency Kyodo News, estimates that the cancellation of the Tokyo 2020 Games would result in a 1,4% drop in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP). It would cost more than 65 billion euros and cause a fall in national income of 24% compared to the 2019 financial year.
In the absence of cancellation, a postponement would be possible. But it should be radical. “I don’t think the Games can be canceled, confided Haruyuki Takahashi to Wall Street Journal. If necessary, we would rather consider a postponement. The IOC would face too many problems in the event of a cancellation. Particularly with regard to American television broadcasting rights. The best scenario would be a postponement of the Games a year or two. »
Still according to Haruyuki Takahashi, a team from the organizing committee is currently working on the feasibility of such a scenario. His report could be presented at the next executive council meeting, scheduled for the end of March.
Silent at the time, the organizing committee took its time to react to Haruyuki Takahashi's words. But he did so without deviating from the official path. “ We requested clarification from Mr. Takahashi, he clarified to FrancsJeux. He said he inadvertently gave his personal opinion in response to a hypothetical question. As IOC President Bach said the other day, neither the IOC nor the Organizing Committee is considering postponing or canceling the Tokyo 2020 Games, and we are continuing our preparations for an opening of the Games on July 24, 2020 in complete safety, as planned. »
Could the Tokyo Games take place in 2021 or 2022? Why not. According to certain experts, postponing it for one year to the same period would not be trivial in terms of logistics, but it could satisfy broadcasters.
Haruyuki Takahashi is not the first Japanese official to dare to say the word postponement. The Minister of the Olympic Games, Seiko Hashimoto, slipped the word last week, during a speech to parliamentarians. After re-reading the host city contract signed seven years earlier with the IOC, she assured that it would be possible to organize the Games before the end of 2020.
Seiko Hashimoto then returned to her prediction. She had suggested that postponing the Games to the fall or early winter would be “ unacceptable » for athletes. But the idea is gaining ground.
In Lausanne, the IOC stands firm. Thomas Bach reiterated once again earlier this month that the Tokyo Games would begin as planned on July 24. At this stage of the epidemic, the Olympic organization does not want to rush its decision. According to several internal sources, it must be taken before the end of May. Before, it would be premature. Later, the wait would be unbearable.
