Will Africa soon be in the race for the Olympics again? Can the continent ever prevail? The questions are not new, but they remain awaiting answers. The debate was reopened this Friday 1er April in Algiers, on the occasion of the 10rd edition of the International Convention for Sport in Africa (CISA). Among the speakers, Essar Gabriel. The former secretary general of the IAAF, long at the IOC, has just created his consulting company, egabriel, based in Dubai and dedicated to the administration and organization of major sporting events. He detailed for FrancsJeux the economic conditions of an Olympic project.
FrancsJeux : Is there a direct relationship between the economic power of a country and its chances of organizing the Games?
Essar Gabriel : Yes. I studied the GDP and the rank in the world economy of the countries which organized the Summer Games between 1984 and 2020. Based on the figures from 2014, we see that all these nations are ranked in the top 14 of world economic powers, with the exception of Greece, clocked at 44rd rank. The United States (Los Angeles 1984, Atlanta 1996) is in first place, Spain (Barcelona 1992) is 14th.rd. All others (South Korea, Australia, China, Great Britain, Brazil and Japan) are ranked somewhere in between.
Where is Africa located?
Today, its countries do not belong to this elite. Nigeria is ranked at 21rd place, South Africa is 33rd, Egypt 38rd, Algeria 48rd, Angola 60rd and Morocco 61rd. The GDP posted by Nigeria, at the top of the continent, was in 2014 a third of that of Spain.
Do the forecasts give hope to African countries?
Yes. A study by PwC places Nigeria in 19th placerd world place in 2030, then to 9rd in 2050. On this date, Egypt should be at 20rd rank of world nations. On a purely macroeconomic level, the potential for an African candidacy therefore lies between the 2030s and 2050s.
Aren't the poor prospects for commercial revenues a handicap for an African candidacy?
Certainly. Hotel capacity is another. Today, South Africa appears to be the most mature market on the continent in terms of commercial revenues and private financing. Nigeria is beginning to move in the same direction.
Can Agenda 2020 adopted by the IOC change the situation?
It undoubtedly makes it possible to use strategies that seemed impossible before its adoption. At CISA, the president of the Algerian Olympic committee, Mustapha Berraf, today raised the idea of a joint candidacy for the three Maghreb countries, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, for the Youth Games, or even the Olympic Games. But a candidacy for the Olympics cannot be reduced to GDP figures. The link between the economy and Olympic ambitions is certain, but a candidacy must be based on a medium-term strategy, between 8 and 12 years. We must not break the dream, but we must move forward by dreaming with our eyes open. Wanting the Games has no meaning if the objective is not accompanied by a solid, relevant and thoughtful plan. The project can start from a desire or an intuition, but it must then be reinforced by a quantified study and a strategic plan. An Olympic bid must make sense, especially in a woke world like ours, where questions of citizenship and sustainability are at the heart of evolution.
Doesn't the example of Brazil, an emerging country at the time of Rio's victory for the 2016 Games, now in the midst of an economic crisis, risk encouraging the IOC to exercise a certain caution when entrusting the Games to a developing nation?
It is certain that Brazil's economy was stronger at the time of the vote than it is today. But the probable success of the Rio 2016 Games will not leave Brazilians with bad memories once the event is over. The population will certainly not talk about it, in the future, as an event that weakened the country. It will undoubtedly even enter the DNA and history of Brazil. Today, the people taking to the streets across the country to demonstrate are not attacking the Games, but the power in place.
Despite everything, isn't stability becoming a decisive criterion in the awarding of the Olympic Games?
She is, of course. Political and economic stability. But not all IOC members necessarily have a medium-term vision. They are also influenced in their choice by the current environment, particularly geopolitical. Without the security crisis that erupted shortly before the vote for the 2020 Games, Istanbul might have been preferred to Tokyo.
