World athletics should change era this Wednesday morning, August 19, 2015. At least in the cozy corridors of its institutions. Lamine Diack, the Senegalese, leaves the presidency of the IAAF after sixteen years of reign. To succeed him, two legends of the stadium are vying for the seat: Sergei Bubka the Ukrainian and Sebastian Coe the Briton. Two figures of athletics, and undoubtedly also of sport as a whole. Two giants, with a background in politics, both entered the international sporting movement without needing to strike twice. The former pole vaulter chairs the Ukrainian Olympic Committee and sits on the IOC Executive Board. The former middle-distance star also heads his national Olympic committee. Above all, he forever earned a reputation as a miracle worker for having won, then succeeded, in organizing the London Games in 2012.
Who has the best profile for the position? Hard to say. One thing is certain: the IAAF has never been coveted at the same time by two such recognized, influential and charismatic personalities. Never, either, has a race for the presidency of the first Olympic sport seemed so indecisive. A few hours before the vote, scheduled for Wednesday morning in Beijing, a very clever person could be sure to know the name of the future winner without making a mistake.
Between the two candidates, the time has come for final promises. Intoxication, too. Sergei Bubka openly declares himself “optimistic”. He says he is “very confident” about the outcome of the vote. And walks through the corridors of the Beijing Intercontinental flanked by two other big names in Ukrainian sport, the boxer Vitaly Klitschko and the former football player Andreï Shevchenko. Present in Kuala Lumpur at the start of the month for the 128th IOC session, he assured that he could count on 60% of the votes.
Sebastian Coe is more discreet in his forecasts. But his campaign team, the Vero Communications agency of Briton Mike Lee, confidently repeats that the former miler should win with a lead of around ten votes.
The reality seems less clear-cut. According to the most relevant observers in the field, nothing is yet decided and the final undecided should tip the balance at the last moment to one side or the other. The vote will be close, undoubtedly the most contested in history. It could be decided by a small handful of votes, out of the 210 voters expected in Beijing. The IAAF statutes grant one bulletin to each of the 214 member countries of the institution. One vote per national federation, without distinction of size or importance.
By all accounts, Sebastian Coe has been in the lead for a long time. But Sergei Bubka would have caught up thanks to a well-conducted field campaign. “He knew how to find the words to speak to people,” assures a representative of an African federation. Both understood that it was not necessary to skimp on promises to win voters. Sebastian Coe promised to redistribute to countries a larger share of the revenue paid to the IAAF by the IOC for the Olympic Games, i.e. a jackpot of at least $100.000 per country. Clever. Sergei Bubka responded by explaining that, once elected, he would ensure that the national federations all own their own premises and are able to employ at least two or three permanent staff. “The IAAF will pay salaries and provide zero-interest loans,” he said. Not stupid.
Without predicting the outcome of the vote, it seems certain that Sebastian Coe won the bulk of the votes from Western Europe, North America and Oceania. Sergei Bubka, for his part, would have convinced Asia, South America, part of Eastern Europe and Africa. The United States and Russia have explained that they do not want to take a public position. The votes of English-speaking African countries, originally won by Sebastian Coe, would have changed sides. A turnaround which would have led British diplomacy to take action, not hesitating to call dissident federations through its own embassies. Without result, it seems.
